Cafe Hayek: Americans are Wealthy (and Getting Wealthier)

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December 22, 2005

Americans are Wealthy (and Getting Wealthier)

Don Boudreaux

In a famous (or infamous, depending on your perspective) article on growing income-inequality in America - an article that appeared in the October 20, 2002 issue of the New York Times Magazine - Paul Krugman wrote the following:

Although America has higher per capita income than other advanced countries, it turns out that that's mainly because our rich are much richer. And here's a radical thought: if the rich get more, that leaves less for everyone else.

That statement -- which is simply a matter of arithmetic....

This reasoning, despite its coating of cockiness, is terribly, inexcusably wrong.

The simplest way to see why it's wrong is to recall a principle that Krugman once wrote about so eloquently: David Ricardo's principle of comparative advantage. This is not the place to do more with that principle beyond relating its conclusion: as people specialize in those productive tasks for which they enjoy a comparative advantage, and then exchange their output with others who also specialize according to their comparative advantages, all parties to this process of specialization and exchange are made wealthier. Total wealth grows.

Indeed, if you understand the principle of comparative advantage, you understand that "it's simply a matter of arithmetic" that when two or more people specialize according to their comparative advantages, more wealth is produced.

A very different way to challenge the claim that the rich get rich at the expense of the poor (or, more specifically, that America's middle-class is disappearing, or that the typical American has suffered stagnation in his living standards since the mid-1970s) is to look seriously at the data. A recent serious look at the data appears in this superb article from yesterday's Wall Street Journal. It's written by Stephen Moore and Lincoln Anderson. (Unfortunately, access to the WSJ requires a paid subscription.) Here are some key lines from the Moore-Anderson article:

What the [Census Bureau and Fed] reports tell us is that the vast majority of Americans have not bumped into income glass-ceilings, but rather are experiencing an astonishing pace of upward income mobility. The Census data from 1967 to 2004 provides the percentage of families that fall within various income ranges, starting at $0 to $5,000, $5,000 to $10,000, and so on, up to over $100,000 (all numbers here are adjusted for inflation). These data show, for example, that in 1967 only one in 25 families earned an income of $100,000 or more in real income, whereas now, one in six do. The percentage of families that have an income of more than $75,000 a year has tripled from 9% to 27%.

But it's not just the rich that are getting richer. Virtually every income group has been lifted by the tide of growth in recent decades. The percentage of families with real incomes between $5,000 and $50,000 has been falling as more families move into higher income categories -- the figure has dropped by 19 percentage points since 1967. This huge move out of lower incomes and into middle- and higher-income categories shows that upward mobility is the rule, not the exception, in America today.

......

Turning from income to wealth, data from the Fed provide further confirmation of family economic gains for the middle class. The total net worth of Americans rose to just shy of $50 trillion in 2004. The Fed has not yet calculated the median household wealth for 2004, but we estimated that number by taking the average ratio of mean wealth to median family wealth over the past 10 years. This yields an estimate of $105,000 in 2004. This is almost double the median family-wealth level of 1983 and nearly triple the level of 1962. Until very recently, for a family to attain six figures of wealth was considered quite rich. Despite all of the groans about the over-indebtedness of American households, the new Federal Reserve Board data suggest that the family balance sheet is not highly levered. The ratio of debt to assets is only 18.3%.

Data, of course, can always be challenged. But look around you at the cars on the road (they're safer and break down much less frequently than in the past), the mobile telephony that nearly everyone today possesses, the variety of items available in a typical supermarket, and I think you'll find that everyday observations square with Moore's and Anderson's account.

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» Movin' On Up from Democracy Project
Cafe Hayek's Don Boudreaux takes NYT columnist Paul Krugman to task today over his contention that America's rich get rich at the expense of the poor, and substantiates such an absurd claim by pointing to a piece in yesterday's Wall... [Read More]

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» Friday Afternoon/Evening Links from Maggie's Farm
Scruton on the EU: Voting doesn't matter if if doesn't fit the leftist agenda. Open DemocracyBin Ladin's neice: A cutie-pie. Those arabs have BIG families, don't they?A fed-up Dem rants about Dem politics: Front PageAmericans growing in wealth and standar [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 24, 2005 12:28:35 AM

» Zero Sum from Atlas Blogged
On Thursday of this week, Professor Boudreaux of George Mason University had an opinion piece on the Pittsburg Live website (associated with the Pittsburg Tribune). In the piece, he lays out an explanation of how wealthy the average American actually... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 24, 2005 9:28:46 AM

» Income Mobility In The United States from Hispanic Pundit
The Wall Street Journal writes: What the reports tell us is that the vast majority of Americans have not bumped into income glass-ceilings, but rather are experiencing an astonishing pace of upward income mobility. The Census data from 1967 to 2004 p... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 28, 2005 3:39:37 AM

Comments

Thanks for posting this. That diatribe (growing income-inequality) has irked me for some time.

Posted by: Chris Meisenzahl | Dec 22, 2005 6:26:33 AM

Pardon my ignorance, as I don't have a source for this likely-myth, but how does the claim of some that poverty rates continue to rise square with this data?

Is what constitutes 'poverty' becoming more encompassing?

Evan

Posted by: Evan Manrow | Dec 22, 2005 6:48:13 AM

Evan:

You ask: "Is what constitutes 'poverty' becoming more encompassing?" The answer is yes. Here's more from Moore-Anderson:

"The middle class has not been "shrinking" or losing ground, it has been getting richer. For example, the Census data indicate that the income cutoff to be considered "middle class" has risen steadily. Back in 1967, the income range for the middle class (i.e., the middle-income quintile) was between $28,000 and $39,500 a year (in today's dollars). Now that income range is between $38,000 and $59,000 a year, which is to say that the middle class is now roughly $11,000 a year richer than 25 to 30 years ago."

It follows from the above that some income ranges that in the past were regarded as middle income are now regarded as lower income.

Posted by: Don Boudreaux | Dec 22, 2005 7:06:42 AM

Don is correct. The 'poverty bar' is rising faster than inflation. I do not have the figures handy, but the poverty class is more likely to have air conditioners, refrigerators, cable tv, and XBoxes than they were last decade. I suspect more than half of the poverty class has three of the above four.

Want more evidence? Look at the "living wage" effort. Now there's poverty inflation. First the left asks for a wage (remember apprenticeships), then they ask for a minimum wage, now they ask for a 'living wage.'

A parallel issue is 'economists' who constantly point to the poorest 10% in society and suggest ways to extract these poor from their situation. NEWS FLASH, there will always be a group of people in the bottom 10% of wealth (or income). Think of the futility of trying to make everyone an above average driver. It's not possible! This is the sisyphusian curse that leftism has cast upon us. Drop the "gap" argument and focus on the comparative wealth across nations' poverty class. Where would you like to be poor? America or Ethiopia? The gap wealth gap is narrower in Ethiopia.

Posted by: Marshall S. | Dec 22, 2005 7:33:52 AM

I'm just making a quick reaction, but there seems to be something wrong with the analysis here. The census data I look at, and I presume it is the same data he is using reports on the quintiles of income distribution. I look at that data and it reports that the top quintile income is growing rapitdly. Moore does the same.

But Moore seems to take that a second step and says the share of the population in the top quintile is growing and the share of the population in the bottom quintile is falling. This can not be right. The top quintile always contains 20% of the families and the same for the bottom quintile.

So what am I missing?

Posted by: spencer | Dec 22, 2005 8:48:42 AM

Spencer:

I haven't yet looked at the reports used by Moore and Anderson for their WSJ article. But what Moore and Anderson say is not that the percentage of families in upper-income quintiles is rising and that those in lower-income quintiles is falling. What they say (in the second of their paragraphs that I quote in my post) is that the percentage of families in higher income CATEGORIES is rising and those in lower income CATEGORIES is falling.

The income categories are here defined (according to Moore and Anderson) in $5,000 increments. "Income categories" is a very different concept from "income quintiles."

Posted by: Don Boudreaux | Dec 22, 2005 9:17:55 AM

Very true,

I was struck when there were reports of poverty levels in New Orleans and I noticed that the average income level was about the same as here in Britain. That is before you take into account higher prices in the UK.

The measure of poverty we use here, and is widely used elsewhere, is anyone earning below a certain percentage of the median income is considered to be below the poverty line. Hence there is now more "poverty" in Britain than in WWII, when we had rationing. "Relative" poverty does not measure real poverty at all, only equality of income distribution.

That said, I would not adopt a measure of poverty that fixed the income level except for inflation adjustments. In fact, I would eliminate income level from the calculation altogether.

I would say that real poverty is when your position in society precludes self-betterment. Therefore, factors like high crime, lack of access to education etc... would define a person as being in poverty.

Posted by: Mark | Dec 22, 2005 9:32:54 AM

Krugman's statement would be true...if the amount of wealth in the economy were fixed. Not even normative economists with their Gini coefficients and Lorenz curves would claim that.

I find Paul Krugman very sad these days indeed, he was once a pretty good economist. Now he's nothing put a partisan shill.

Posted by: Timothy | Dec 22, 2005 9:44:15 AM

I think one problem with the discussion is the lack of a good definition of poverty.

Do a quick mock-up in Excel for the cost of food, transportation, housing, clothing, medical/personal care, childcare, and perhaps education, entertainment, travel etc.

The number you get has nothing to do with "the lowest 10%". If you can pay for these things, you are not poor.

Is there any attempt to make a good definition of poverty?

Further, how much is the EITC related to such a definition?

Posted by: Ivan Kirigin | Dec 22, 2005 10:07:53 AM

I'll tell you what is perpetuating the myth, misleading statistics like share of aggregate income.

Looking at the 2003 census data we can see that from 1967 to 2003 the share of inomeby the top 5% increased from 17.5% to 21.4%. People see this increase and conclude that the poor are losing their share of the wealth. Of course this data isn't helpful in actually determining how wealth is growing and distributed. If you look at the actual, inflation adjusted, income data, you will see that the 20th percintile household went from $3,000 to $18,000 ove that time period. The 95th percentile household went from $19,000 to $154,000. So, yes, the richest did create a larger portion of all new wealth over that period, but the income of the poor was actually growing at a similar exponential rate.

Posted by: josh | Dec 22, 2005 10:25:26 AM

Do the income and wealth gaps really mean anything at all? It was Thomas Sowell who first pointed out to me that few people in the bottom quintile of income or wealth stay there for all their lives. In fact, he cited statistics showing that a person was more likely to move from the bottom to the top quintile than to remain in the bottom.

What our tax and legal structure does seem to allow is tremendous economic mobility. Sam Walton, Bill Gates, and Oprah Winfree didn't start out wealthy. Most of today's millionaires were likely to have earned low income wages at some point in their lives.

What the so-called rising income inequality tells me is that the rewards for hard work and risk-taking are greater than ever before. That motivation is exactly what we need to ensure continued economic growth.

Posted by: JohnDewey | Dec 22, 2005 11:00:42 AM

The economist magazine regularly shows work pointing out that the social mobility of the US is not the highest in the world...off the top of my head it was behind australia and germany. The perception that the middle class is shrinking is fueled by the runaway cost of two middle class staples...health insurance and higher education. Not to ruin the blogs "hayek karma"! haha

Posted by: gman | Dec 22, 2005 11:30:14 AM

gman,

I agree that one can come to different conclusions by looking at different sets of statistics. I believe that Thomas Sowell cited data measuring the progress of individual wage-earners over time. The economist articles I've seen refer to studies of father and son incomes.

There are many explanations for the social stratification in the U.S. The Economist suggest the data show an inequality of opportunity. I prefer these explanations:

- decay of family structure among the lower class;
- biological inheritance;
- a culture of entitlement that removes incentives to achieve.

Posted by: JohnDewey | Dec 22, 2005 12:31:51 PM

Krugman made a lot more since in the old days, say in "Pop Internationalism". Krugman-97 I call him, to distinguish him from that pathetic liar who writes for the NYT these days.

Seem to recall him pointing out, vis-a-vis internatinal economies, people hated the idea that some other guy was getting wealthier. They'd rather that themselves and everyone else stay poor, than that they get richer but the other guy get even richerer.

Posted by: Kevin | Dec 22, 2005 2:00:01 PM

I think it is a real strength of Americans, that they tend not to resent others who have more... as long as they feel they have a shot as well. That mindset(everyone is middle class) has really helped the US bake a bigger pie rather than worry about relative slice sizes. The current environment is testing that admirable trait. What percentile of the wealth or income distribution would one have to be in to withstand either a major illness and, or put a child or two through an advanced degree at a good university w/o being left penniless? Those things have changed dramatically in the last decade or two. Not a critique of any polcy or ideology< just an explanation of why attitudes about class may be changing despite that "being poor is better than it was" is obvious to us

Posted by: gman | Dec 22, 2005 2:23:41 PM

Surely the principle of comparative advantage can't be used in and of itself to prove that everyone is always getting richer? Surely when it is applied to countries trading, it pretty much precludes the notion that every individual within those countries is able to work to her maximal productivity?

Posted by: Tom | Dec 22, 2005 2:31:20 PM

Regarding poverty statistics, there is also the inherent lie of having a single national poverty line. With an income of $30k/yr you could barely rent an apartment in San Francisco. In rural Nebraska you could buy a house.

Posted by: Noah Yetter | Dec 22, 2005 2:54:47 PM

I learned a long time ago not to trust the WSJ editorial page, and this is another example of why.

What they are doing is comparing a constant to a growing series to demonstrate that you can add crabs and apples to get crapapples.

Over the last 30 years real median family income has grown very nicely,from $37,519 in 1974 to $44,389 in 2004. That is a 0.6% compound growth rate according to my calculations.

Now if you look at the middle class income data. That would be the two income groups of $35,000 to $50,000-average $42,500 - and the $50,00 to $75,000-average $62,500-in 2004 real dollars. In 1974 $42,500 was 116% of the median real income. Now it is only 96% of the median. The same with the $62,500 income. In 1974 it was 171% of the median and now it is only 140% of the median.

So what the WSJ is making a big deal of the point that a larger share of the population is making $62,500 now then 30 years ago, and trying to conceal the fact that $62,500 is less in relative terms then it was 30 years ago.

The WSJ artilce does not negate the point that over the last 30 years when real meadian income rose 30%, the real income of the top quintile rose 60%, the next rose 30%, the middle rose 18%, the next 12%, and the bottom some 5%.

Now I am not saying this is a good or a bad thing. I am just saying this is the fact.

But if it is not a good or bad thing, why is the WSJ editorial page going to such extremes data distortions to try to conceal it. Ok, Don Boudreaux explain how this is not a data distortion or an example of adding craps and apples to get crabapples.

Posted by: spencer | Dec 22, 2005 2:55:14 PM

gman:

"The current environment is testing that admirable trait. What percentile of the wealth or income distribution would one have to be in to withstand either a major illness and, or put a child or two through an advanced degree at a good university w/o being left penniless?"

I would not argue with this except that we know that a higher percentage of the population now earns college degrees (both undergraduate and advanced). And, people have access to objectively (versus relatively) better health care at all income levels than in the past. This seems to indicate that people at lower income percentiles are better able to withstand illness or put a child through college.

Posted by: RS | Dec 22, 2005 3:51:52 PM

One final, hopefully clarifing point.

In the article Stephen Moore shows a chart
that shows from 1970 to 2004 the share of the population making under $50,000 fell from 67% to 55%, a 12 percentage point drop.

But over that same period $50,000 fell from 136% of the median real family income to 96% of the real family income, a 24 percentage point drop.

So the share of the population making less then $50,000 only fell half as much as the relative income of the median real family income. If income distribution were unchanged the share of the population making less then $50,000 should have fallen 24 not 12 percentage points.

This is what I mean by distoring data to make ones preconceived conclusions, what the WSJ editorial page does repeatedly.

Posted by: spencer | Dec 22, 2005 4:40:40 PM

Spencer, you're getting all caught up in RELATIVE wealth dispersal. As others have pointed out, this is nonsense. The rising tide is raising all boats, in REAL terms. Constantly moving the "poverty line" is stupid, because "poverty" becomes completely relativized. You're upraiding the WSJ for "missing" the point that relative wealth may be widening, but that misses the point of their article, which is to point out that, in ABSOLUTE TERMS, the economic pie is getting bigger and, contrary to popular opinion, the pie is being shared across the classes. Are the rich getting richer? Yes. Are the poor getting poorer? NO!! Not in absolute terms!

A widening wealth dispersion may well prove politically problematic in the future, but to suggest, as so many Leftists do via their MSM mouthpiece, that the rich are getting richer on the backs of the lower classes is complete and utter BS.

Posted by: JABBER | Dec 22, 2005 5:29:45 PM

Two people I almost never believe are Krugman and Moore.

Both tend to come to a conclusion and then find the data to back it.

And sadly the WSJ is an apolgoist page for the Bush administrations latest nonsense.

Posted by: save_the_rustbelt | Dec 22, 2005 11:27:30 PM

Thanks for this excellent column. I wonder when folks say the middle class is shrinking, what is their definition of middle class? If folks are struggling to make payments on their multiple HDTVs and Lexus SUVs, are they then poor?

Posted by: muckdog | Dec 23, 2005 12:50:37 AM

Jabber -- no the main thrust of the article is that everyone is benefiting from the strong economy. No one doubts thats the averages are improving. The question is about increasing income inequality and this article tries to manipilate the data to prove that income inequality is not increasing. I, nor anyone said anything about a poverty rate. All any of us wrote about was income inequality . Moore misused data to argue that it was not rising. All I pointed out is that he is misusing data.

The question I have is why the right wing machine is working so hard to disprove rising income inequality. the basic premise of supply side economics is that the better off save and invest more, so you want their taxes to drop and their income to grow faster. From this basis, rising income inequality should be something to brag about. So why go to such convoluted distortions of data to disprove it.

I am not trying to argue that income inequality is a good or a bad thing. There are many reasons to think that the hgh level of equality achieved in the 1950s-60s was an artificial situation that could not be sustained and all that is going on is a return to normal. Increasing inequality stems from normal economic developments.

What I am upset about is basically dishonest and biased analysis. I thought these guys believed in capitalism. If so why do they have to take such dishonest arguments in defense of it. If you really were a believer you would think the facts would speak for themselves.

Why do they believe they have to be so dishonest?

Posted by: spencer | Dec 23, 2005 10:08:29 AM

Is there any attempt to make a good definition of poverty?

Ivan, every person I have personally known who attempted to define poverty was a person who had never really seen it.

Posted by: Wulf | Dec 23, 2005 11:36:35 AM

Spencer:

Moore and Anderson say clearly that all of the figures that they use in their article are adjusted for inflation.

Posted by: Don Boudreaux | Dec 23, 2005 4:23:50 PM

Of course Krugman can be wrong (and I'm convinced he is) simply because the pie is growing. No matter how big the pie gets, there will still only be 100% of it to divvy up, true. So maybe some will get a smaller percentage. That's where Krugman's math stops (inexplicably). But that smaller percentage still results in a bigger piece of pie than before, because the pie is growing.

I wouldn't be surprised if the rich are claiming an increasing portion of that pie. I think there's nothing wrong with that, and that its almost inevitable where you have three factors: growing economy, growing population, growing productivity.

As there are more people with more money buying more things, much of that money flow is funneled to the few most skilled and talented producers. Think: pro athletes, movie stars, video game entrepreneurs.

Their incomes have shot up dramatically the past 3 decades. These people make $10 - 50 million a year. Why? Because their number will always be relatively few; the economy does not need to scale up their supply much, no matter how big the population grows; you have a relatively fixed supply curve against a mushrooming demand curve.

As they remain few in number but their incomes skyrocket, no surprise the top X percent of the population capture a larger percentage of the pie.

But that's only possible because the hoi polloi are also wealthier in real terms; and can therefore spend money consuming the services of those rich. If that were not the case, the rich would not be deriving more income from them. And so I maintain that growing PORTION of the pie going to the rich is in positive correlation to and a function of the growing REAL INCOME of remaining income groups.

Take sports: people have more money to spend on tickets, merchandising, and the products advertised in TV commercials.

In video games, an industry that did not exist 30 years ago is now capturing more income than Hollywood because the "shrinking middle class" is somehow finding enough spare change to spend enormous amounts of money on utterly trivial things like X-Boxes, playstations, gamecubes, PSPs, and games by the boxload.

I've always felt it helps to look up from the statistics from time to time and observe what the hell is actually happening in the real world.

Posted by: Kevin | Dec 23, 2005 4:51:56 PM

I know it was real income data, thank you.

I know, I did something very unusual.
I went to the original source and looked at the actual data.

Posted by: spencer | Dec 24, 2005 9:52:53 AM

I don't want to defend Krugman too much, but his statement would be true if he had simply stated:
"Assuming the level of GDP is fixed, then... if the rich get more, that leaves less for everyone else."

Whether this was his intent or he has gone completely off the deep end is up for debate, but I would venture to guess that the man hasn't completely forgotten about the principle of comparitive advantage -- he's simply buying into the hype of his demagogic personality...

Posted by: dan | Dec 26, 2005 12:09:52 AM

Paul Graham, a wonderful essayist who often writes about technology,
argues (well enough to make this bleeding-heart liberal think twice)
that income disparity isn't necessarily bad -- at
http://paulgraham.com/inequality.html

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Posted by: prodigy | Jun 29, 2007 6:22:26 PM

What if you are not comfortable with the side-effects of Viagra that occasionally show off and are very much afraid to use the Pfizer manufactured erectile dysfunction drug? With regard to the side-effects of Viagra, it is noteworthy that the medicine indeed yields certain side-effects on an occasional basis. These side-effects are temporary and with the help of adequate care and caution you can easily get rid of them but if a lingering doubt is still present in your mind, it would be better for you to opt for herbal viagra. Gingko biloba, Muira puama and other viagra alternatives are being used consistently used to boost male sexuality since a very long time and it is significant that these products effectively treat male sexual disorders such as erectile dysfunction

Posted by: erectile dysfunction | Aug 21, 2007 2:14:46 AM

The scarcity of time faced by the people in the modern age has given impetus to the concept of things like online pharmacies. Through these pharmacies one can consult, and order drugs and have them delivered at one’s place within a short period of time, all these in the cozy comfort of one’s house. Hence they are a hit nowadays.

Posted by: cialis | Oct 15, 2007 9:52:38 AM

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