« Reality-Based Grasp of "Aid" | Main | The Toll of Economic Ignorance» Don Boudreaux
December 15, 2005
Immigrants and Wages
Don Boudreaux
This new CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll finds that a majority of Americans believe both illegal and legal immigration to "hurt the economy by driving wages down for many Americans." (Hat tip to Jeff Noble of the Mercatus Center.)
Many economic truths are difficult to convey, but perhaps none more so than the idea that people who work in markets that are at least reasonably free are net producers – that a larger number of people in the market’s workforce means a deeper, more fine-grained division of labor – that more people mean more creativity, more problem-solving capacity, more knowledge, all of which increases and widens prosperity.
People are, as Julian Simon emphasized, the ultimate resource – the one resource without which nothing else becomes a resource – the foundational resource -- the only truly indispensable resource.
From one angle, it’s easy to see why the man-in-the-street so readily accepts the notion that greater numbers of workers mean lower wages. But from another angle, it’s not so easy. After all, even the man-in-the-street knows that America’s population today is far larger than it was at America’s founding, or during the mid-19th century, or during the Great Depression, or during JFK’s presidency. The man-in-the-street should wonder how it is that we’re so much wealthier now than then – why real wages are so very much higher.
Perhaps the man-in-the-street would reply to the above point by saying "Technology!" Well, yes. But technological advance doesn’t just happen; it’s not a force that descends from on high or that emerges, cicada-like, from the soil. People – and people only – create technological advance, as well as the businesses, products, and services that embody these advances in ways that are useful to the masses.
Alas, it’s not fair to blame the man-in-the-street for his failure to understand this point. We economists have done far too little to explore it and to explain it. That’s a shame.
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Comments
If you accept the premise that immigrants drive down wages I guess you would have to conclude tht American standards of living peaked with the Jamestown settlement.
Posted by: spencer | Dec 15, 2005 11:58:22 AM
I find that same man-in-the-street often believes that we're only wealthier because we suck our wealth out of the ground. And therefore more people mean more sucking. When confronted with Simon's work they reject it out of hand and go congratulate each other on the www.theoildrum.com
Posted by: mike simonsen | Dec 15, 2005 1:10:35 PM
The effects of legal and illegal immigration on the labor market are completely different. They shouldn't even remotely be lumped together. The only tragedy here is that the issues are so ambiguated for the man-on-the-street.
By the way, illegal immigration of the magnitude and type we are experiencing now has only existed in the past few decades. Interestingly, real wages are also lower now than in the 70s (there are a number of these statistics posted here: http://ebean390.tripod.com/walt1971.html). Here is a table of real wages data since 1964: http://www.laborresearch.org/charts.php?id=8
Posted by: Aaron Krowne | Dec 15, 2005 1:12:45 PM
Aaron,
My Grandfather was a Doctor, and his 2nd wife (my grandmother) worked full time most of her adult life. They owned a small ranch-style house on the nice side of Detroit (there used to be a nice side).
They went on some grand vacations, to Europe, the Rocky Mountains, etc., and by all accounts lived quite comfortably. But they only ever had two cars. One telephone. One television... etc.
Contrast that with my parents- neither of whom finished college. My father is a police officer and my mother is a medical office manager. We live in a very nice, renovated ranch in the wealthiest county in Michigan, comfortable but not extravagant. Throughout my life, my parents have occasionally held title to 4 vehicles, simultaneously. They've taken 3 European vacations in the last 3 years. They own 5 telephones, 3 televisions, cable television, 1 desktop PC, 4 laptop PCs, and have assisted in putting two kids through college.
Your figurs on real wages is interesting, but I'd rather see some information about purchasing power 2005 v 1964. I think you'll find that we have it much better off today than have ever had in the past.
Posted by: doinkicarus | Dec 15, 2005 1:52:54 PM
What happens when immigration mainly includes people with poor educations?
Yes, people push greater prosperity. Does a massive influx of unskilled labor push prosperity?
Does cheaper labor for unskilled jobs mean that more resources are directed towards skilled labor?
In a truly free environment (where the government doesn't take a third of your income and move it around to little benefit), I doubt unlimited immigration would cause economic problems.
The question then becomes one of social cost in rigid societies (look at Paris and Sydney), or policy cost with many resources going from taxpayers to poor unskilled immigrants.
As has been observed, there is a gradient.
Posted by: Ivan Kirigin | Dec 15, 2005 2:40:58 PM
The figures presented by laborresearch.org (A UAW funded organization, btw) suggest that between the years 1975 and 2002 there was a 9% decrease in real wages.
According to US Census Bureau* - the mean Household income in 1975 was $14459 - in inflation adjusted 2002 dollars, $42596.
The household median income in 2002 was about 45% greater than that, at $62906.
Thirty percent MORE households, earning on average, 45% more than they did 28 years prior.
And we're worse off now than we were then, how exactly?
*http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/income_wealth/002484.html
Posted by: doinkicarus | Dec 15, 2005 2:54:32 PM
Aaron and doink, it's conceivable you could *both* be right. If we had enough low-income immigration the low wages of the immigrants could drive down the mathematical average while it was still the case that every single person and every single family's wages in the entire country went UP. You can't take declining average wages to automatically mean that the country or the people are worse off; 'taint necessarily so.
I think what you want is an average that excludes recent immigrants. Or maybe a tracking study that follows specific families over time rather than a random sampling of the ever-changing population as a whole.
Posted by: Glen Raphael | Dec 15, 2005 3:27:39 PM
I think it has been pointed out here before, but comparing households in 1975 to households now is comparing apples and oranges. You MUST control for changes in households before you can begin to compare household income differences. Those "studies" that show significant differences, painting current wages in a bad light, invariably supress variables about household make-up.
Additionaly even controlling for inflation there are difficulties in comparing real wages. Ther are significant changes in quality of products. Who here would say that a 1975 gremlin is remotly comparable to an Accord? You can by any number of used cars today that are of far greater quality than a great number of NEW cars then, and for lower real money prices.
Another point of contention is the fact that wages are not a perfect indicator of wealth, and they are becoming even less significant with the aging population incresingly living on capital, rents interest and transfer payments rather than wages.
Posted by: Justin | Dec 15, 2005 4:36:11 PM
One comment regarding the apparent anamoly that doink brought up in regards to his parents having more purchasing power than his grandparents despite his parents have lower real wages than the grandparents is that when a new technology is first introduced into the market its price is a lot higher because the producer doesn't a lot. As the market becomes more established companies produce more, and thus the price goes. So, relatively new technologies, at the time of grandparents (such as TVs and phones) may have been priced higher in real terms and thus probably they didn't buy as much. As an aside: this also explains why the CPI tends to overshoot inflation.
Posted by: jack | Dec 15, 2005 7:56:21 PM
Well, though there arguments in favour of immigration, "we economists" probably shouldn't run too far with the one up there. The man in the street would probably point out that most immigrants are in low-paid blue collar jobs, and don't spend THAT much of their spare time making technological breakthroughs; and that illegal immigrants in particular find it a bit difficult to start up businesses.
On the other hand, since new technology crosses borders more easily than people anyway, the man in the street would have been a bit of an ass to say "technology" in the first place, so you might as well humor him.
Posted by: Tom | Dec 15, 2005 10:26:45 PM
Tom,
Is it possible that most immigrants are in low paying jobs because of severe restrictions we place on legal immigration? If scientists from Asia and Africa and South America were free to enter the U.S. job market, wouldn't they do so in large numbers? But those highly skilled foreigners would risk too much if they took the illegal immigration route. They would give up their existing jobs, sneak through our Mexican and Canadian borders, and then break the law by forging documents that would allow them to work their trade. Why would they take those chances?
An unemployed carpenter or bricklayer in Mexico is not really risking very much by crossing the border and waiting on a street corner for a subcontractor to pick him up.
If we allowed millions of highly trained foreigners into our country, some probably would be making important technological breakthroughs. Given the work ethic of most Indians and East Asians, I think it likely that a third if not more of our technological breakthroughs would be created partially or wholly by those immigrants.
Posted by: JohnDewey | Dec 17, 2005 9:13:33 AM
What this discussion is missing is the impact of the sharp rise in income inequality over the last couple of decades.
A good paper on it is:Where Did the Productivity Growth Go? Inflation Dynamics and the Distribution of Income, by Ian Dew-Becker and Robert J. Gordon, NBER WP 11842, December 2005:
Most of the above comments used averages
to make their points. But when you get an environemnt like we have had in recent years where virtually all the benfits of real growth go to only the top income groups and the real income of the middle and lower income groups stagnates using averages to make a point can be very misleading.
But maybe immigration is playing a larger but indirect role in this process. If the immigrants are becomming the lower 5% with stagnant wages and allowing the native born with better educations to move up while still having someone to do the poor jobs of janitor and bed pan changer we could all be better off. If we did not have the immigration someone would still have to do the low paying jobs they now do, so it would be much more difficult for others to move up to better paying more productive jobs.
The economy is much more dynamic and complex then most of the comments immply.
Posted by: spencer | Dec 17, 2005 9:41:55 AM
Keep it simple: supply and demand for unskilled labor.
Supply goes up, demand stays fixed, prices go down.
Is it more complicated?
Note that this can occur and immigrants can still be a net benefit to society. Just because a certain group gets paid less, doesn't mean the net result is bad.
Posted by: Ivan Kirigin | Dec 17, 2005 10:47:15 AM
It's not that simple beyond the short-run. One important reason it's not that simple is that a greater supply of workers enables the division of labor to be deepened -- and a deeper division of changes the underlying production techniques that generate the demand for labor.
Posted by: Don Boudreaux | Dec 17, 2005 11:06:10 AM
The growing inequality of wages between top and lower wage earners is real. But what does that mean? It doesn't mean that the rich keep getting richer. I think it means that our economy is doing a better job of rewarding those who work hard to take advantage of their special skills. Many of today's highly paid CEO's and athletes and entertainers earned little or nothing 25 years ago. Through their efforts they have become income superstars.
I have noticed that ambition plays as much a role as education or intelligence in determining income. Many entrepreneurs with little education are earning far more than the average college graduate. A college degree certainly opens doors, but a real entrepreneur never lets a closed door stand in his way. Some of the legal and illegal immigrants are definitely taking advantage of our land of opportunity.
Posted by: JohnDewey | Dec 18, 2005 8:12:35 AM
doinkicarus, good point on the wage statistics. I'm looking at the ones here: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/histinc/h01ar.html which have CPI-adjusted dollars, and do show overall rising incomes.
Frankly, I'm not sure what statistic most truly represents whether the average citizen is materially more wealthy than thirty years ago.
Since there are conflicting answers based on the statistics we have, I can't really use this in my argument that illegal immigration is harming that material well-being today.
However, I don't think this is really a necessary way to make the argument, since all that is needed is to show that people are worse off now than they would be in the absence of the phenomenon. The historical argument would be no "proof" anyway, since you cannot de-convolve the various factors covering gradual change between now and the mid-70s.
Posted by: Aaron Krowne | Dec 18, 2005 3:40:00 PM
I dont understand this conversation. Why are people so against the idea of poor immigrants entering this country and earning a living? BTW what gives you the right to complain? Your existence is no greater or important than the poor person just trying to make a few bucks to send money back to his family. If progresivism is the unmitigated support of jingoistic economic policies in order to support only those people who are currently living in said country then I dont want any piece of that pie. I always thought that the left and progresives were on the side of the down trodden, which makes their Pat Buchanonesque views on immigration all the more puzzling?
Posted by: John Pertz | Dec 19, 2005 4:37:17 PM
Just because it leads to "xenophobic" conclusions, not even Don Boudreaux can repeal the law of supply and demand. Higher supply of something does lower its price, and this goes for labor as well.
As to the argument that this cheaper labor will lower prices too, this neglects the fact that immigration will increase population density and thus make land more scarce which in turn means higher housing costs.
And then there is of course the costs of providing health care and education for illegals and their anchor-babies.
Don should read Steve Sailer's excellent article on how the current policy of cheap labor and expensive housing is wiping out the middle class in California.
http://www.vdare.com/sailer/051218_labor.htm
Posted by: Michael Johnson | Dec 19, 2005 4:46:17 PM
JohnDewey (a fellow Dallas resident) wrote "Given the work ethic of most Indians and East Asians, I think it likely that a third if not more of our technological breakthroughs would be created partially or wholly by those immigrants."
Heh. Since you previously that wrote that American workers are stupid or ill-educated, I shouldn't be surprised at your ignorance.
I’ve hired and trained hundreds of Indian and East Asian workers in Hong Kong, the UK and America. Foreign workers lag behind the productivity of US workers. This is a verifiable statistical fact.
You’d have to be stupid or ill-educated to not know it.
Posted by: Jeff Younger | Dec 19, 2005 8:40:05 PM
It seems that opponents of open immigration can only point to short run instances where population growth becomes problematic. They still havent refuted the fact that as the U.S's population has grown, the entire economic distribution of the U.S has enjoyed a rising standard of living. If population decline or stagnation is to be championed then why all of the worry about in Europe right now. I think the best point about this issue was made by Spencer. Here is his post
"If you accept the premise that immigrants drive down wages I guess you would have to conclude tht American standards of living peaked with the Jamestown settlement."
If you do believe that population stagnation or decline is the superior phenomena then how do you reconcile this fact.
Posted by: John Pertz | Dec 20, 2005 10:13:04 AM
Economists cannot seem to understand that what is good for the economy as a whole can be devastating for many individuals.
Illegal aliens are being used to drive down blue collar wages, especially in non-union construction jobs. This directly hurts American citizens (employers know illegals will not complain about violations of wage-and-hour laws, OSHA, workers comp, payrollt axes, etc., and so can pay them $4 and hour and charge them for their tools).
So, unless we declare open borders and let anyone in, we should enforce the law.
Legal immigration should be encouraged but at some measured pace.
Posted by: save_the_rustbelt | Dec 20, 2005 10:23:04 PM
"I dont understand this conversation. Why are people so against the idea of poor immigrants entering this country and earning a living? BTW what gives you the right to complain? Your existence is no greater or important than the poor person just trying to make a few bucks to send money back to his family."
Assuming there are at least two billion really poor people in the world, how many should we admit? All of them?
Let's hold hands and sing Kum-Bay-Yah.
And what do I tell my children and grandchildren about their standard of living being reduced to third world levels?
I'm an American citizen and taxpayer and in this country my existence is more important than that of illegal aliens.
Posted by: save_the_rustbelt | Dec 20, 2005 10:28:10 PM
Rustbelt,
I dont know where to begin. As a response to your point about the 2 billion poor people in the world coming to America all I have to ask is could you afford to even move a mile away if you were living on a dollar or two a day? Hell no. Also even if you could afford to leave that doesnt mean that you neccesarily will. The real question is what percentage of the world's population is in migration and believe it or not the share of people who are moving from country to country is somewhere around 2 million a year. However, just because some person living in extreme poverty comes to the U.S that doesnt mean that he will neccesarily take your job. In fact even if you have a g.e.d you should be dramaticaly more skilled than the average poor person living at bare sustenance, who you believe is to be absolutely feared at all times. Also, if the poor immigrant is such a threat to working class americans than why is it that the median family income is rising and unemployment is lower than the protectionist economies of France and Germany. The France and Germans obviously share your jingoistic and for that matter probably racist economic mindset and all that has gotten them is unemployment rates of 10 percent.
Posted by: john pertz | Dec 21, 2005 12:17:17 AM
"And what do I tell my children and grandchildren about their standard of living being reduced to third world levels?"
How is their standard of living being reduced to third world levels? Illegal aliens are already performing most of the construction work here in Texas. But nearly everyone here is living better than they were 20 years ago.
If we adjust for inflation the wages of lower income citizens, we could claim that they are earning less than 20 years ago. The problem with that adjustment is that the quality of goods and services have increased. The government's inflation index is not an accurate measure for periods of greater than a few years.
Is there any other evidence, other than inflation adjusted wage rates, to show that the huge increase in illegal immigration has reduced U.S. standard of living for anyone?
Posted by: JohnDewey | Dec 21, 2005 11:38:18 AM
john pertz: so should we drop all immigration laws and have open borders? Is there a limit?
john Dewey: sorry, but the whole country is not as properous as Texas - and construction jobs would look really good to a lot of American citizens right now.
If illegal immigrants do not have to obey the law, why should anyone obey the law?
Posted by: save_the_rustbelt | Dec 22, 2005 11:35:23 PM
An interesting observation from the Journal of Libertarian Studies, Volume 13, No2., article #8.
"According to proponents of unconditional free immigration, the U.S. qua high-wage area would invariably benefit from free immigration; hence, it should enact a policy of open borders, regardless of any existing conditions, i.e., even if the U.S. were ensnarled in protectionism and domestic welfare. Yet surely, such a proposal strikes a reasonable person as fantastic. Assume that the U.S., or better still Switzerland, declared that there would no longer be any border controls, that anyone who could pay the fare might enter the country, and, as a resident then be entitled to every “normal” domestic welfare provision. Can there be any doubt how disastrous such an experiment would turn out in the present world? The U.S., and Switzerland even faster, would be overrun by millions of third-world immigrants, because life on and off American and Swiss public streets is comfortable compared to life in many areas of the third world. Welfare costs would skyrocket, and the strangled economy disintegrate and collapse, as the subsistence fund—the stock of capital accumulated in and inherited from the past—was plundered. Civilization in the U.S. and Switzerland would vanish, just as it once did from Rome and Greece.
Since unconditional free immigration must be regarded as a prescription for national suicide, the typical position among free traders is the alternative of conditional free immigration. According to this view, the U.S. and Switzerland would have to first return to unrestricted free trade and abolish all tax-funded welfare programs, and only then should they open their borders to everyone who wanted to come. In the meantime, while the welfare state is still in place, immigration would have to be made subject to the condition that immigrants are excluded from domestic welfare entitlements." (Hans-Hermann Hoppe)
Unrestricted immigration would not be debated if the welfare state didn't exist. Most Americans, I believe, are understandably concerned about the potential increase use of welfare benefits by immigrants, than immigration. This is so, because, the US taxpayers foot the bill with increases in taxes imposed on them by their government.
Unfortunately, I seriously doubt that the US federal and state governments will have the courage to completely abolish all welfare entitlements. Since they won't, some form of immigrant restriction or welfare benefit restriction must be establish by law, before the US open up the immigration flood gates.
The same can be said about Free Trade.
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Posted by: zxcvwe | Oct 31, 2007 9:54:06 PM
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